This guide is essential for anyone new to gambling or sports betting. Did you know that around 97% to 99% of sports gamblers lose money in the long run? And when it comes to slots and casino games (excluding poker), almost 100% of players end up losing. But why is this? Is it just bad luck, or is there a perfectly reasonable explanation for it? Could you be one of the rare few who actually makes money from gambling?
Why Most People Lose
There is a simple reason why sportsbooks make millions in profit every year, and it is because the odds they offer on their bets are mathematically designed to crush you over the long run. For example, the fair odds of a coin landing on heads is 2.00, a sportsbook might only offer odds of 1.90. This results in a -EV bet of 5%, meaning for every £10 you bet, you are expected to lose 50p.
While you might experience short-term wins, in the long run you are guaranteed to become a losing gambler. If you simulate the coin flip billions of times to ride out variance, you will win 50% of these coin flip bets. At fair odds of 2.00, you would win £20 from each winning bet, and would end up break even. However, if you took the odds of 1.90, you would only be getting paid £19 for each winning flip, resulting in a significant loss in the long run. The more betting volume you do at -EV odds, the bigger your losses will be in the long run.
This is also why there are no professional slot or casino players (excluding poker). The games are designed to pay out less than the fair odds, ensuring that over time, players will lose money. The built-in house edge in slots and casino games means that the odds are always stacked against you, making it impossible to achieve long-term profitability.
How To Make Money Sports Betting
We now understand that nearly all sports bettors lose money due to betting at poor odds. It’s not a matter of luck or bad luck; it’s simple math and basic probabilities. Every sports event has an inherent probability, and betting at odds worse than these probabilities will always lead to long-term losses. This is particularly true in events featuring a big favourite. Even if we’re confident that a team will win, they don’t have a 100% chance of victory. The odds offered are often not high enough to compensate for the times the favourite doesn’t win, which happens more frequently in sports than many people expect.
As we can never predict the future with certainty, the only way to achieve long-term profit in sports betting is by placing bets at odds higher than the fair odds, known as +EV (positive expected value) betting. For example, in the coin flip scenario, if you bet at odds of 2.20 instead of 1.90, you will still lose 50% of the time. However, on the 50% of bets you win, you’ll receive £22 each time, which is more than the fair pay out. This results in a 10% return on investment (ROI), and an average profit of £2 for every £10 wagered, which over a large number of bets would add up to a significant profit.
How To Get Started
As a newcomer to sports betting, you’ll need to register with several sportsbooks. In the UK, there are dozens of options, many of which offer enticing welcome bonuses. This presents a great chance to build a risk-free bankroll of up to £500. By using OddsMonkey, you can follow a straightforward guide to claim these welcome offers without any risk. This is risk free because you will be matched betting, where you bet on something to happen on a sportsbook, and lay (bet it won’t happen) the bet on an exchange, meaning the two bets cancel each other out. It costs a small amount and grants you your welcome bonuses, which you may have to go through a few more steps to make withdrawable back to the bank. When matched betting, avoid the horse racing market, as the odds fluctuate too quickly to effectively secure matched bets. For simplicity and consistency, focus on sports with more stable odds, like football and tennis.
My link provides a 7-day free trial, allowing you to get started. It can be worth signing up for one month to allow you to complete all the welcome and take advantage of the weekly promotions offered by various sportsbooks.
Important Tip!! – Sportsbooks are wise to matched bettors and will limit the accounts of those who they suspect to be doing it. Limiting means they block promotions and restrict how much you can place on a bet, effectively killing your action of their site. There are a number of sites where you do not want to get limited so quickly because they are very easy to make money on, getting limited early on through matched betting is a rookie error that cripples long term profits.
For the following sites: bet365, Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair, William Hill, Betway, BetMGM, Unibet, BetUK, Ladbrokes, Coral, 10 Bet, Betfred, Boyle Sports, QuinnBet, BetGoodWin, Sporting Index, Star Sports, VirginBet & LiveScoreBet – It is essential to appear as a casual sports bettor. While you should still follow the OddsMonkey guide on how to get the welcome bonuses, you need to avoid using their tool to find the bets.
Instead, do the matched betting with your favourite or local football team. While you won’t get the maximum value from the welcome offer doing this, these sites offer various promotions and markets that are extremely valuable for +EV betting. Meaning you will make far more money in the long run creating the account like a casual bettor. It is imperative to avoid using any software to find value bets on these sites, otherwise you will get limited very quickly. Some of these sites are linked too, meaning getting limited on one can affect others too.
Following this important tip is crucial for your long-term success as a profitable sports bettor. For all the other sites you come across, just take their welcome offer and forget about the site, they generally offer very little that will result in long term profits, the sites listed above are the ones to focus on next.
+EV Betting & Building Your Bankroll
One you have built up a risk-free £500 bankroll, it’s time to take things to the next level and join the top 1% of sports bettors through +EV betting. This approach is what separates profitable bettors from the rest and is the key to growing your bankroll sustainably over the long term.
To start, focus on taking advantage of Super Boosts offered by sportsbooks such as bet365, Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair, and occasionally William Hill & Betway. Super Boosts are special promotions on featured events, such as a Premier League match at 12:30, where the odds are significantly increased, creating highly +EV opportunities. These boosts often come with a maximum bet limit, typically around £10, and the super boosts that are boosted to odds of 2.00 are particularly valuable and can rapidly build your bankroll.
Additionally, you can take advantage of our premium +EV golf bets. We save you time and effort finding only the highest quality +EV bets that saw us great success in 2024. Simply follow the bets we provide and stick to the suggested bet sizes. To manage your bankroll effectively, divide it into 100 smaller units. Use these units to place bets according to our recommendations, which are designed to help you maximise profits while managing risk. We also recommend creating a bet tracker to monitor the performance of your bets and track the status of your bankroll.
Key Takeaways
Build a Risk-Free Bankroll: Start with a risk-free bankroll of around £500 by taking advantage of the welcome bonuses and weekly promotions through matched betting.
Utilise Super Boosts: Take advantage of Super Boost promotions offered by sportsbooks like bet365, Sky Bet, Paddy Power, and Betfair. These enhanced odds provide excellent +EV bets and quickly build your bankroll.
Only Place +EV Bets: Consistently sticking to premium +EV bets ensures you build a solid foundation for long-term profits.
Manage Your Bankroll: Stick to the recommended bet sizes we provide for each wager. +EV betting can be volatile, with occasional losing weeks. Stay disciplined and avoid the temptation to increase your bets in the hope of a winning streak. Also, keep track of your bets and monitor your bankroll status regularly.
Avoid Account Limitations: Avoid rookie errors that get your account limited quickly, like using software to find bets on the sites listed above.
Spread Your Bets Out: It is inevitable for profitable betting accounts to eventually be limited, so to prolong this, you need to spread your bets out across the various sportsbooks where possible.
Avoid Slots & Casino Games: These games are designed with a built-in house edge to ensure you lose money over time. They can also be highly addictive, so it’s best to avoid them.
Gamble Responsibly: Aim to approach +EV betting with the discipline of a robot. However, if you find yourself deviating from this strategy and engaging in less profitable betting, it’s important to take a step back. If you observe problematic behaviour or if things seem to be escalating, consider registering with Gamstop to prevent further gambling. Remember, the goal is to make money, not to contribute to the profits of multi-million-pound companies.
