For our +EV betting strategy, we exclusively focus on premium +EV betting opportunities to achieve a high quality return on investment over time. To complement these valuable +EV opportunities, we adjust the size of the Kelly multiplier based on the probability of each bet winning. The Kelly multiplier is a mathematical formula that recommends an optimal bet size relative to your bankroll, taking into account both the expected value of the bet and its probability of success.
In +EV betting, as the probability of a bet winning decreases, we adopt a more conservative approach. We only bet on higher +EV opportunities and utilise a lower Kelly multiplier, ensuring effective bankroll management while maximising our potential returns. The table below outlines the probabilities we target, the corresponding minimum +EV required, and the recommended Kelly multiplier for each range:
| Probability | Target +EV (%) | Kelly Multiplier (x) |
|---|---|---|
| 50%+ | 5%+ | 0.25x |
| 40% – 50% | 10%+ | 0.20x |
| 30% – 40% | 15%+ | 0.15x |
| 20% – 30% | 20%+ | 0.10x |
| 10% – 20% | 25%+ | 0.10x |
| 5% – 10% | 50%+ | 0.10x |
| 1% – 5% | 75%+ | 0.05x |
| Under 1% | 100%+ | 0.05x |
What We Bet On
Our primary focus is on golf, as it is a relatively soft market that offers numerous premium +EV opportunities. This market also provides ample time for us to place our bets strategically. Below is an overview of the various golf markets we target.
Outright: Betting on the outright winner of a tournament, placed before the tournament starts and sometimes during the event.
Top 5/10/20:Betting on a player to finish in the top 5, 10, or 20 on the leaderboard at the end of the tournament.
Tournament Matchups: Betting on one player to finish higher than another by the end of the tournament.
Tournament Trios: The same as a Tournament Matchup, but involving three players.
Top by Category: Betting on a player to be the best performer within a specific category, such as nationality.
Make & Miss the Cut: Betting on whether a player will make or miss the tournament cut after the first two rounds.
Group Winner: Selecting a player to finish highest within a pre-defined group. We particularly focus on Kwiff, aiming to capitalise on the random Kwiff boosts combined with the premium +EV odds.
2 Balls (18-Hole Matchups): Betting on which of two players will win a particular round.
3 Balls: Similar to 2 Balls, but involving three golfers.
Round Score: Betting on whether a player will score over or below the set round score.
Super Boosts – Promotions where odds are significantly increased, creating high +EV bets. These are usually offered on sites like Bet365, Sky Bet, Paddy Power, and Betfair.
Betting Schedule
Below is our typical schedule for betting across various tournaments and markets:
Tuesday: Various pre-tournament bets on Majors, PGA, and DP World Tour. This usually involves betting on Tournament Matchups, Trios, Top By Category, Groups, Cuts, with the occasional Outright and Top 5/10/20 depending on liquidity in the exchanges.
Wednesday:We finalise all remaining pre-tournament bets for Majors, PGA, and DP World Tour, focusing on Outright and Top 5/10/20 markets. Additionally, we place all Round 1 bets for these tournaments. On this day, we also cover all pre-tournament bets for LIV Golf and Outrights & Top 10 for Korn Ferry Tour (KFT). It’s also a good opportunity to review any unmatched bets on the exchanges and secure premium odds.
Thursday – Sunday:During the tournament, we focus on daily round bets, especially in the 2 Balls, 3 Balls, and Round Score markets. These bets are generally placed the day before each round, allowing us to capitalise on premium odds for Majors, PGA, and DP World Tour events.
